vetting
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Replying to Rusp #rusp. i will single handedly bring it back
Wizard
Saturday, November 2, 2024
Replying to Phijkchu_Pikachu #klombak I feel like you are our first person from Australia, we have a non active guy from new zeland, but never australia
Everyone just assumes I'm german, and I've never bothered to correct them.
Sunday, November 3, 2024
Monday, November 4, 2024
Phijkchu US Election Outcome Prediction 2024
- 🔴 Trump wins big 300+1 vote · 6%
- 🔴 Trump wins modestly 270-3006 votes · 35%
- 🟨 Close election8 votes · 47%
- 🔷 Kamala wins modestly 270-3002 votes · 12%
- 🔷 Kamala wins big 300+0 votes · 0%
17 votes Poll closed
I think there are so many states that are statistical tossups, that will all end up going the same way depending on voter turnout etc.
Harris has to play defense in so many different states, if she underperforms there is no real way to stem the losses,
Trump's floor feels a lot higher is probably a more simple way to put it
I still think the rough odds are 70-30 (Trump-Kamala)
actual market odds today are ~60-40
I just don't think it's very realistic to have a close election in terms of electoral vote, and I definitely don't think this will take "days" to figure out the winner
Trump still can totally lose, cheating aside, but I just don't feel like I've seen the groundswell of people giving enough of a fuck for Kamala to out-perform
you can tell with how hard they've been trying to hit various minority groups, blacks, Puerto Ricans, etc.
that their play is trying to drum up new support, that will tenuously materialize
Replying to legorhin #jazardly we have multiple states saying they are goingblatantly cheatstill be counting votes for a week
If we don't have a winner before 1AM wednesday I'll be legit shocked
Rusp, Trump will win big and ban kirby as a franchise, stopping another new game from ever coming to the west
I have it on good authority
Replying to Spooky Phijkchu #spooky.131 actual market odds today are ~60-40 (edited)
i think between spooky's odds and betting odds isabout where it probably actually is
Max, if we make another circle, do those odds go up to 100%, or plummet to 0?
I think you're right
we needed to have some asian redesign our circle to focus the energy differently
1. cheating
2. we live in a super bubble that shows us what we want to see, so or own perceptions of what the average person feels are skewed, especially depending on where some of us live. the avg. woman is going to "vote blue no mattter who"
3. trump is still extremely controversial all things considered
I think its another "he wins the college barely, loses popular" kind of elections
But the blue tsunami Rusp
Rusp, I would vote for all might
I think Harris was such a bad choice that it will be easier than biden v trump 4 years ago, especially since people are less immediately mad about trump like they were last time
which probably means lower turnout for blue
sure there is a correlative increase that more people ushering their support could mean more people are going to vote
conversely it could also be people that would of voted before, and assumed trump had it in the bag for re-election- but were blown out by the fact he lost so doubling their effort
does not even get the black noveltry boost because Obama stole that one
nor the woman president one because even though she lost, Hilary kind of burned people out on that one
For what its worth, I get zero irl US politic stuff, my twitter is like 30% pro trump, 30% tranny shit, and I think trump wins
although reddit has made some points about how Texas is for sure going blue, so its a tossup