Replying to Spooky Phijkchu #spooky.131 I'm also genuinely curious if they are just going to take and develop our land
It's not your land if the government can take it away from you over a few thousand dollar tax bill.
rawb
Wednesday, August 12, 2026
not the government, data centers
they're paying $4M/acre
so our little neighborhood is praying they come to take ours
Spooky's view that AI is almost god might be influenced by the fact that the AI bubble must last long enough to give him retire right now money
this is where I live
the light red are existing data centers, the dark red are in-construction
they take 18-24 months to build
this is Ashburn Virginia
it's where all the East Coast centers are
The companies building it will not be the companies who inherit it
its the goldrush
it's not all AI, this is also AWS and Azure and Walmart, etc.
the reason they're all here is in the 80s the feds laid infinite fibre from here up/down the East coast and into DC
the trans-Atlantic cables mostly go to NYC (though some come directly here too)
but VA has everything else
I'm still genuinely surprised how much of an outlier I am on AI Pika, I figured the average was going to be option 5 (the AGI one)
but I would have bet a couple others would also be around where I was
I think the majority being 1 tier above me, who is mostly anti AI out of personal gripes and thinking that humanity itself is fucking itself over by how it came about being implemented, makes sense
I think the vast majority of people think LLMs are either somwhat useful at niche topics, or maybe very useful in general, but nothing more than that
I think your tier and even the tier 1 above you are both sort of the position that AI is not going to improve much further from where it is now, that we're 80-90% of the way to maxing out its potential
Yeah, which I think is true
LLMs are they are now, we are hitting what we are going to get, we are not going to get any more 100x quality jumps like we did, until another breakthrough that is transformer tier, is figured out
Replying to Phijkchu_Pikachu #klombak I think the vast majority of people think LLMs are either somwhat useful at niche topics, or maybe very useful in general, but nothing more than that
I think the general population is aligned mostly with Leg, probably skewing a bit towards "fun novelty"
Replying to Phijkchu_Pikachu #klombak LLMs are they are now, we are hitting what we are going to get, we are not going to get any more 100x quality jumps like we did, until another breakthrough that is transformer tier, is figured out
I firmly disagree with this now, but that was my opinion for a long time, that LLMs were probably a dead end to getting to AGI or beyond
full stop, its not what they are designed to do
A lot of the big leaps post transformers being implemented are upping compute power and harvesting more data for training
I think we will hit actual AGI in my lifetime, not by 2030, and it will not be a LLM
It will incorperate aspects of how LLMs work, but LLMs by themselves won't make it to that
artificial general intelligence
aka actual AI in the scifi sense
or moreso that than what we have now
I don't think that LLMs are as rigid a construct as I initially thought
the initial approach to training felt self-limiting, and I would have been the first person to tell you it was going to hit a wall and our fun markov chain toys were going to all be forgotten about
and I think for a while, the investment has literally been
I think they are not rigid, there is a lot you can do with prediction based reasoning that LLMs do
invest billions ---> build a big training set ---> magic---> super AI
and its crazy investors went for that
because I do think we ended up on this current course almost accidentally
I think the limit is, a LLM cannot freely think beyond its data set. I think you might be able to get higher results using multiple LLMs in parallel doing different things
but you are not overcoming the fact that LLMs are limited by their dataset
when some advanced network of them do, are you just going to stop calling them LLMs?
I'd call them a network of LLMs
I think you can approximate human thought with enough LLMs running in parralel, but actual AGI is beyond that
maybe a function without distinction, but I do not support the idea of claiming what we have now is more than it is, a tool that ranges from not to very useful depending on what you use it for
I'd also agree with that, nothing that exists currently that is generally available, is more than a productivity tool
And I think people who are claiming "Google Gemini is alive" are retarded
I think when a LLM can update its own training data in reasonable time, without human intervention, and without imploding itself, I will consider us closer to your view
If I start seeing things slowdown that suggest we're anywhere near the top of an S-curve, I'd also be more aligned with you
I'm not naiive, if it stops working suddenly, then this is all dead and gay
I think it can improve, but I think the cost to improve it is getting higher for lower returns, and the only reason you have not seen it slow down is instead of letting it slow down they are just burning trillions to get these diminishing returns
when they stop dumping actual trillions on this, you'll hit the top of the S
I think that's probably the fundamental difference in view, I see progress accelerating right now
burning the trillions is working
It'll work until the returns are diminished to the point that you have to burn quadrillions to get the same returns
then we print more money
line go up
Okay, I will put it this way, I do not think an LLM, which has the sum total of all human knowledge as it exists right now, and the entire planet is reformed to exist to be in service to (only the data ceneter, factories making more memory etc, power generation) will be AGI
and I think there will be something in the next ~2 years that I will consider AGI
sure, but it will not be an LLM
it'll be a Network of LLMs
mtcdood, it's worse
they are mostly convinced they are creating god
the actual AI lab people I work with
are unirronically convinced they are going to meet a god if they do a good enough job
I think the people funding it are doing it for what mtcdood is saying, I think the people working on it are delusional like spooky said
also most think their work will make them immortal
lol
RIP
Honestly spooky, I will go the other way with my take from yours