general

@Phijkchu_Pikachu what are the odds of this?

It's not *that* long of odds

if you say there are 30-50 people in the cult who are notable enough that we track birthdays for, there being 2 sequential days somewhere is ~50%

so 4 (or more) will be somewhere in the single digits

probably 5-7%

if someone reveals they have a July 2nd birthday, we'll have two different 4-in-a-row runs

are there no two people in here who share the same birthday?

Rob and Space have the same birthday (Phijkchu adjacent)

No other doubles

though I know my list is somewhat lacking, because I fuck up the settings when I add things to my calendar often

spooky i'm a rob double

Are you also Aug 14th?

no i'm the 13th

i just went through rob's server and he has messages in different years mentioning his birthday on the 12th through the 14th

yeah, I think he always shifted it around a bit to happen on a day he was streaming/uploading I'm 99% sure it's actually the 14th, with DaniDipps on the 15th right after

though I could also just be wrong!

clearly an objective source

mini google the birthday paradox

it will blow your mind

I have no idea if this reasoning is correct, and probably overcounts, but say you have 50 notable people in the cult (huge stretch), first person does not matter (they will always have a birthday on a date). For the next person, you have to choose 1 (so 49 choices) and you have to pick one of the days on either side of the person (so 2/365). Do this for the subsequent people, and I think the formula for 50 people having 4 consequetive days is something like (49)(48)(47)(2^3)/(365^4) ~ 1.8%

I am really bad at counting problems though, probably my worst area of mathematics

each person is me

so it would be me every day

Generalized if my formula is correct, to (n-1)!/(n-k)! (2/365)^(k-1) where n is the number of people, k is the desired length of the chain

I think your formula undercounts, but I don't really know why

I hate probability questions

I think it's related to having to account for collisions of other birthdays

i'm working on an inductive solution

You are probably right Spooky, but I think just saying for 50 people it is ~5% is good enough!

agree

ask grok on sexy mode

tell your chatgpt to talk like that forever

We need a month-long personality lock feature

that could be fun

So ~ 4.7%

i didn't need induction in the end

mine is probably also overcounting

give me the number of ways you can put M items into 4 bins while guaranteeing at least one in each bin, and I have a better formula

call that B(M)

this should eliminate duplicates that were ignored by the previous nCk operation

Did you consider something like Dec 31 to Jan 3? Also Feb 28.

yes and no

did you factor in 9/11

Considering I am apart of phijkchu, 9/11 is in play for the chain

since I am 9/10

So I would hope so

The Pakistan-India war has begun

whose side is Phijkchu taking?

its a dance-battle style war

according to those videos...

India's Twitter page has no chill

Is it an actually full out war?

I have not been paying attention

unless Pakistan immediatey waves the white flag and cedes territory

probably

India has troops moving to occupy Kashmir

Something tells me the world will not send tons of munitions to pakistan to fight off the superpower 2055

they had "military exercises" scheduled all day on the 7th

sorry pakistan, you are not ukraine

I just hope everyone dies has a good time :)

or israel

^

ghandi moment

Israel has come out in support of India already

Pakistan threatened nukes

but rn Pakistan is sorta weird

because the military took over, because surprise surprise, the fake president the US installed 2 years ago was ineffective

Pakistan should consider tarrifing india

I think that will work

I think India knows they have the upper hand, despite their troops being Indian

doubt there's much placating that'll happen

shitty part is because it's the literal 3rd world, there will be very little candid video

Pakistan prime minister declares act of war. Says they'll reply