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banned-users

Phi Kappa Chi ΦΚΧ <a:yeah:589703000977571860><a:ppHop:536353159615086612>

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a group of people are sent into a room. Two dice are rolled, and if they land double sixes then everyone in the room gets shot. Otherwise, they're released and the whole procedure is repeated again with a new group of ten times as many people. (And so on, until a group gets shot.) You're sent into the room. What is your chance of being shot? Well, obviously 1/36, right? That's the chance of double sixes being rolled. But note that the vast majority (~90%) of people who enter the room get shot. (This is stipulated -- assume there is an unlimited stock of people, ammo, etc. There's no risk of "running out", no matter how many rounds the game goes on for.) You have no reason to consider yourself one of the lucky 10%. You have the same chance of being shot that anyone else who enters the room does. So you must all have a 9/10 chance of being shot.

This archive is read-only — captured July 2020

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