#vetting · Neon Genesis Phijkchu

Spooky Phijkchu Nov 4, 2024 3:31 PM vetting

Phijkchu US Election Outcome Prediction 2024

🔴 Trump wins big 300+1 vote · 6%
🔴 Trump wins modestly 270-3006 votes · 35%
🟨 Close election8 votes · 47%
🔷 Kamala wins modestly 270-3002 votes · 12%
🔷 Kamala wins big 300+0 votes · 0%

17 votes Poll closed

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 4:23 PM vetting

Why do you think trumps gonna win big spooky?

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 4:23 PM vetting

I'm curious

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 4:24 PM vetting

I think he SHOULD win big

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 4:24 PM vetting

But I think various countermeasures are going to water down his results

Spooky Phijkchu Nov 4, 2024 4:30 PM vetting

I think there are so many states that are statistical tossups, that will all end up going the same way depending on voter turnout etc. Harris has to play defense in so many different states, if she underperforms there is no real way to stem the losses,

Spooky Phijkchu Nov 4, 2024 4:30 PM vetting

Trump's floor feels a lot higher is probably a more simple way to put it

Spooky Phijkchu Nov 4, 2024 4:30 PM vetting

I still think the rough odds are 70-30 (Trump-Kamala)

Spooky Phijkchu Nov 4, 2024 4:31 PM vetting

actual market odds today are ~60-40

Spooky Phijkchu Nov 4, 2024 4:32 PM vetting

I just don't think it's very realistic to have a close election in terms of electoral vote, and I definitely don't think this will take "days" to figure out the winner

Spooky Phijkchu Nov 4, 2024 4:34 PM vetting

Trump still can totally lose, cheating aside, but I just don't feel like I've seen the groundswell of people giving enough of a fuck for Kamala to out-perform

legorhin Nov 4, 2024 4:34 PM vetting

we have multiple states saying they are going ~~blatantly cheat~~ still be counting votes for a week

Spooky Phijkchu Nov 4, 2024 4:34 PM vetting

you can tell with how hard they've been trying to hit various minority groups, blacks, Puerto Ricans, etc.

Spooky Phijkchu Nov 4, 2024 4:35 PM vetting

that their play is trying to drum up new support, that will tenuously materialize

legorhin Nov 4, 2024 4:35 PM vetting

if trump declares victory tomorrow I hope he thanks Joe Biden for the help

Spooky Phijkchu Nov 4, 2024 4:35 PM vetting

Replying to legorhin #jazardly

we have multiple states saying they are going ~~blatantly cheat~~ still be counting votes for a week

If we don't have a winner before 1AM wednesday I'll be legit shocked

Phijkchu_Pikachu Nov 4, 2024 4:39 PM vetting

Rusp, Trump will win big and ban kirby as a franchise, stopping another new game from ever coming to the west

Phijkchu_Pikachu Nov 4, 2024 4:39 PM vetting

I have it on good authority

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 4:48 PM vetting

I have it at 80-20 odds

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 4:48 PM vetting

Based on gut feeling

taxes Nov 4, 2024 4:50 PM vetting

Replying to Spooky Phijkchu #spooky.131

actual market odds today are ~60-40 (edited)

i think between spooky's odds and betting odds isabout where it probably actually is

taxes Nov 4, 2024 4:50 PM vetting

like 65~

Spooky Phijkchu Nov 4, 2024 4:51 PM vetting

Max, if we make another circle, do those odds go up to 100%, or plummet to 0?

taxes Nov 4, 2024 4:51 PM vetting

0

taxes Nov 4, 2024 4:51 PM vetting

you saw what happened

taxes Nov 4, 2024 4:51 PM vetting

if anything we sucked trumps energy dry

taxes Nov 4, 2024 4:51 PM vetting

and harvested it

Spooky Phijkchu Nov 4, 2024 4:51 PM vetting

I think you're right

Spooky Phijkchu Nov 4, 2024 4:51 PM vetting

we needed to have some asian redesign our circle to focus the energy differently

taxes Nov 4, 2024 4:52 PM vetting

1. cheating 2. we live in a super bubble that shows us what we want to see, so or own perceptions of what the average person feels are skewed, especially depending on where some of us live. the avg. woman is going to "vote blue no mattter who" 3. trump is still extremely controversial all things considered

taxes Nov 4, 2024 4:52 PM vetting

i still think his odds are ontop for him winning

taxes Nov 4, 2024 4:52 PM vetting

but i do feel its a lot closer

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 4:55 PM vetting

I definitely don't think it's 50:50 like many are claiming

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 4:55 PM vetting

Unless they're counting for fuckery which I understand....

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 4:56 PM vetting

Also I should clarify if I didn't think cheating was going to happen I would call it a clean sweep for Trump 100% victory

Phijkchu_Pikachu Nov 4, 2024 4:59 PM vetting

I think its another "he wins the college barely, loses popular" kind of elections

taxes Nov 4, 2024 5:00 PM vetting

Replying to Rusp #rusp.

Also I should clarify if I didn't think cheating was going to happen I would call it a clean sweep for Trump 100% victory

i think thas still a bit of a bubbled take

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 5:02 PM vetting

I mean, I just trust what I see

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 5:02 PM vetting

The amount of Trump signs I see out around where I live compared to previous years is staggering

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 5:02 PM vetting

And only maybe a handful of Kamala signs

Phijkchu_Pikachu Nov 4, 2024 5:03 PM vetting

But the blue tsunami Rusp

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 5:03 PM vetting

They will elect all might president

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 5:03 PM vetting

And his initial address to the union?

taxes Nov 4, 2024 5:03 PM vetting

Replying to Rusp #rusp.

The amount of Trump signs I see out around where I live compared to previous years is staggering

yeah but where you live isnt exactly a consensus for the entire USA

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 5:03 PM vetting

The patch notes

taxes Nov 4, 2024 5:03 PM vetting

hence me saying bubble

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 5:03 PM vetting

And I'm saying it's much higher comparatively to last year

Phijkchu_Pikachu Nov 4, 2024 5:03 PM vetting

Rusp, I would vote for all might

Rusp Nov 4, 2024 5:03 PM vetting

Which is my gauge

taxes Nov 4, 2024 5:03 PM vetting

a lot of people are going to vote blu no matter who

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