rawb

A lot of the big leaps post transformers being implemented are upping compute power and harvesting more data for training

I think we will hit actual AGI in my lifetime, not by 2030, and it will not be a LLM

It will incorperate aspects of how LLMs work, but LLMs by themselves won't make it to that

whats AGI

artificial general intelligence

aka actual AI in the scifi sense

or moreso that than what we have now

I don't think that LLMs are as rigid a construct as I initially thought the initial approach to training felt self-limiting, and I would have been the first person to tell you it was going to hit a wall and our fun markov chain toys were going to all be forgotten about

and I think for a while, the investment has literally been

I think they are not rigid, there is a lot you can do with prediction based reasoning that LLMs do

invest billions ---> build a big training set ---> magic---> super AI

and its crazy investors went for that

because I do think we ended up on this current course almost accidentally

I think the limit is, a LLM cannot freely think beyond its data set. I think you might be able to get higher results using multiple LLMs in parallel doing different things

but you are not overcoming the fact that LLMs are limited by their dataset

when some advanced network of them do, are you just going to stop calling them LLMs?

I'd call them a network of LLMs

I think you can approximate human thought with enough LLMs running in parralel, but actual AGI is beyond that

maybe a function without distinction, but I do not support the idea of claiming what we have now is more than it is, a tool that ranges from not to very useful depending on what you use it for

I'd also agree with that, nothing that exists currently that is generally available, is more than a productivity tool

And I think people who are claiming "Google Gemini is alive" are retarded

I think when a LLM can update its own training data in reasonable time, without human intervention, and without imploding itself, I will consider us closer to your view

If I start seeing things slowdown that suggest we're anywhere near the top of an S-curve, I'd also be more aligned with you

I'm not naiive, if it stops working suddenly, then this is all dead and gay

I think it can improve, but I think the cost to improve it is getting higher for lower returns, and the only reason you have not seen it slow down is instead of letting it slow down they are just burning trillions to get these diminishing returns

when they stop dumping actual trillions on this, you'll hit the top of the S

I think that's probably the fundamental difference in view, I see progress accelerating right now

burning the trillions is working

It'll work until the returns are diminished to the point that you have to burn quadrillions to get the same returns

then we print more money

line go up

Okay, I will put it this way, I do not think an LLM, which has the sum total of all human knowledge as it exists right now, and the entire planet is reformed to exist to be in service to (only the data ceneter, factories making more memory etc, power generation) will be AGI

and I think there will be something in the next ~2 years that I will consider AGI

sure, but it will not be an LLM

it'll be a Network of LLMs

I think a lot of the AI hype are people who know they can get huge loans and investments, then leave the company before it collapses.

Like how many image generators do we really need?

mtcdood, it's worse they are mostly convinced they are creating god

the actual AI lab people I work with

are unirronically convinced they are going to meet a god if they do a good enough job

I think the people funding it are doing it for what mtcdood is saying, I think the people working on it are delusional like spooky said

also most think their work will make them immortal

I don't know if I mentioned it, but the AI company I worked for did in fact fire me for pointing out my boss was incompetent and we had 10-15 people doing whatever they wanted all day.

lol

RIP

Got a nice severance package out of it though.

Honestly spooky, I will go the other way with my take from yours

Probably won't go back to work for a year or more.

so, they're weird fanatics?

I think this huge LLM push has caused the opposite, and delayed actual AGI by probably 10 years