#politics · Neon Genesis Phijkchu

Gent Oct 31, 2020 3:40 PM politics

^

Spooky Phijkchu Oct 31, 2020 3:40 PM politics

but now they've used their autoritarian jackboot to quickly crush any outbreak

legorhin Oct 31, 2020 6:03 PM politics

https://twitter.com/kayleighmcenany/status/1322573012206571521

President @realDonaldTrump officially takes the LEAD in ARIZONA ‼️‼️‼️

legorhin Oct 31, 2020 6:05 PM politics

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322647406710870023

New @CNN polls (LVs)... Arizona: Biden 50%, Trump 46% Michigan: Biden 53%, Trump 41% North Carolina: Biden 51%, Trump 45% Wisconsin: Biden 52%, Trump 44%

legorhin Oct 31, 2020 6:54 PM politics

the Biden rally is PACKED with maybe 80 people PogChamp

legorhin Oct 31, 2020 7:49 PM politics

https://twitter.com/DMRegister/status/1322682396735655937

🚨 FINAL #Election2020 #IOWAPOLL 🚨 Among likely Iowa voters: 48% Trump 41% Biden More on the race: https://t.co/gc54ZvCAxW

legorhin Oct 31, 2020 7:49 PM politics

I live in a sane state now

legorhin Oct 31, 2020 8:01 PM politics

https://twitter.com/SamBraslow/status/1322649128103419904

Tabling to recall Gavin Newsom

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 8:20 PM politics

https://reasonstovotebiden.com/

Reasons to Vote for Biden!

A handy list of reasons to vote for Joe Biden. Show America who to vote for!

reasonstovotebiden.com

legorhin Oct 31, 2020 8:22 PM politics

this website is nothing if you have social media integrations forcibly blocked

legorhin Oct 31, 2020 8:22 PM politics

http://reasonstovotebiden.com/joebiden/

Reasons to Vote for JoeBiden!

A handy list of all the reasons to vote for Joe Biden. Show America who to vote for!

reasonstovotebiden.com

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 8:49 PM politics

biden campaign cancelled an event yesterday

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 8:49 PM politics

because of the trump supporters following the biden bus

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 8:49 PM politics

and they got scared

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 8:52 PM politics

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322700188624932869?s=20

I LOVE TEXAS! https://t.co/EP7P3AvE8L

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 8:52 PM politics

as seen in this tweet

Spooky Phijkchu Oct 31, 2020 8:53 PM politics

I love this

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 9:01 PM politics

apparently a hearse with trump 2020 stuff on it also followed biden bus around texas

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 9:01 PM politics

prompting it to run some red lights to try and get away

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 9:01 PM politics

dont know how valid that is

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:19 PM politics

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322602104226283520

Here's the 538 version of "what the map would look like if polls are exactly as wrong as in 2016". Note, though that a lot of states are close here. The tipping-point state would be Arizona, which Biden would win by 1.9 points. His wins in FL, GA and PA would all be <1 point....

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:19 PM politics

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-can-still-win-but-the-polls-would-have-to-be-off-by-way-more-than-in-2016/

Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More...

To borrow from Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, “I’ve seen enough.” No, I don’t know who’s going to win the election. According to our forecast, Presiden…

fivethirtyeight.com

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:19 PM politics

There's a typo in this article, as Clinton won Maine by 3 points in 2016, not Trump.

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:19 PM politics

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:20 PM politics

This is what the map looks like if the polling error is 2016's +1, and Biden loses all of the close races.

Spooky Phijkchu Oct 31, 2020 10:21 PM politics

If people remember, in 2012 the polls were wrong in the other diretion

Spooky Phijkchu Oct 31, 2020 10:22 PM politics

and republicans were actually -3 or -4

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:22 PM politics

Very true.

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:25 PM politics

I think the main issues with 2016 were that pollsters weren't talking to enough white voters without a college education (skewing the numbers to Dems), and that undecided voters ended up being more likely to vote for Trump.

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 10:25 PM politics

and they arent now?

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:26 PM politics

I think a lot more pollsters control for education now.

Spooky Phijkchu Oct 31, 2020 10:26 PM politics

I don't think polls will ever be acurate again

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 10:26 PM politics

the polls will never be accurate

Gent Oct 31, 2020 10:26 PM politics

Polls are just a political tool

Gent Oct 31, 2020 10:26 PM politics

And I don't think they're even that far off here

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 10:26 PM politics

i doubt that everyone answers truthfully

Spooky Phijkchu Oct 31, 2020 10:26 PM politics

because there's no reliable way to contact and poll people in a statistically nuetral way

Gent Oct 31, 2020 10:26 PM politics

They're just useless

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 10:27 PM politics

also consider the risk it puts you at if you answer wrong considering whats happening in these big cities recently

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 10:27 PM politics

which is also why its more likely to see a democrat lawn sign than it is a repblican

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 10:27 PM politics

though that isnt true where i am necessarily

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 10:28 PM politics

Of the signs i see i see few biden and trump but most houses do not have signs

Gent Oct 31, 2020 10:28 PM politics

I mean, it's mostly places like portland that want to record the names and addresses of every trump voter

Gent Oct 31, 2020 10:28 PM politics

If that's what you're referring to

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 10:29 PM politics

that is true

Gent Oct 31, 2020 10:29 PM politics

And nobody cares about oregon here, that's not a swing state

Dolfin Oct 31, 2020 10:29 PM politics

but one was attacked in broad daylight today in cali

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:35 PM politics

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:36 PM politics

I think Trafalgar and Rasmussen try to account for "shy Trump voter syndrome" or whatever.

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:36 PM politics

All of their polls are much more Republican leaning than everyone else's.

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