politics
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
none of the odds for nominee feel legit
president overall is still 60-40, which is fine
but Dem nominee is insane
you can look at matchup polling they're doing, Kamala and M.Obama aren't even pipe dream ideas
Whitimer is the strongest choice, but she seems to have declined it
Newsom wants it, and will probably get it
and then there are ~3 other names floating around
Kamala is not one of them, not even close
Honestly, no
In a surprise to no one, all the deadlines are arbitrary, and change all the time anyway for no reason
same with all the fud about campaign donations
"they won't be able to use Biden's campagin money"
except, thay 100% will be able to
idk, all the talk about 100 days not being long enough seem like cope from Republicans that want them to keep Biden, so he can shit is pants on national TV
Spooky would put 80-20 odds on them replacing Biden at this point, I think it's basically a done deal
Whitimer saying no is the only reason I'm not at 95%
media wants him the fuck out
HARD
which is bizarre
so, my other theroy
is that they've been holding off this economic collapse until the election as best they can
but if they can't hold it back any longer
and are just going to let it happen
then at least removing Biden gives them a little distance from that
They are weighing their options. with biden vp is their choice for president
Is there any limits on who can be chosen as vp?
that makes sense
People hate Indians too much rn
I genuinely think Indians have tanked their international reputation
Trump wins if he wins one of the following 3 states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania
So he should probably just pick one and pick a popular centrist from one of those states
Knowing Trump, he's going to pick a woman though
More interesting is the UK election tomorrow
Nigel Farage is back in politics (again)
he's taking the Reform Party, and is trying to be the death blow to the conservatives
Labour was always going to win, because the Conservative supermajority has done nothing for 4+ years
complete waste of a mandate
Reform + LD could potentially win more seats than the Tories
and force them out of the opposition
which would be an historic embarrassment (that they probably deserve)
Labour was also forced to move right, and become more anti-immigrant because people hate immigrants now
Thursday, July 4, 2024
He's in
they're still coooooonting,
Reform will win 15 according to the exit poll, and somewhere 15-20% of the vote
libdems+reform+independents+welsh might be the minority coalition
probably, idk if they do recounts or military ballots or what
but he's ahead
it's going to be bigger, likely most ever