general
Monday, August 10, 2026
it was not an unknown payload
they use the old LM7's for ChinaSat launches
LM12 is the goofy slow-ascent one I like
blowing up that long after launch is odd though
I'll assume it's roughly MaxQ at that point
but failure there is almost always flight-path deviations, not a full-on explosion
Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Predict the state of LLM-based AI in August 2030
- The bubble pops and most AI have ceased to exist0 votes · 0%
- AI chatbots and AI art remain a fun/frustrating novelty0 votes · 0%
- AI has utility, they mostly excel at simple tasks4 votes · 29%
- AI has a lot of utility, used as a tool in most fields6 votes · 43%
- AI operates independently, and is generally intelligent3 votes · 21%
- AI has rendered most human labor obsolete0 votes · 0%
- AI is hyper-advanced, but has an upper-bound0 votes · 0%
- AI is hyper-advanced, with seemingly no upper bound1 vote · 7%
- AI has become a god0 votes · 0%
14 votes Poll closed
I'm asking the AI question, because seemingly everyone else is too
I've seen 5 different think-y articles this week
about being AI-pilled
I was constrained by the Discord poll limitations, some of my points may not come across that well
date doesn't really matter, I picked 2030, feel free to read this as 5-years if that frames things better in your mind
yell at me if you think I missed a gradation somewhere
Where is the bubble will pop and a ton of companies will go under, but AI is here to stay and will scale back to being more reasonable and it will not be pushed as much as it is now
the 4th one
I don't think that is the same thing
oh, at simple tasks
I should read the same thing
3rd or 4th is around that line
I guess that's fine to vote for, but know I am specifying the AI bubble will also pop and cause a massive economic problem
I think the bubble popping and "AI causes human extinction" are sorta parallel to the capabilities of LLMs
or at least that's how I chose to write it, since there are a lot of permutations of combos otherwise
My take on LLMs is that it will never be super useful except for people who already know what they are doing, so the majority of people will be actively detrimental to them, or a sidegrade at best
LLMs will never reach human intelligence level, that is not what they are designed to do
human intelligence level meaning "it can actually think in a way humans do, not in the way LLMs determine what responses to give"
yeah, I was careful to not just write "AI is smarter than a human" or "better than a human at something"
because that's sorta meaningless
It also depends on if I am grading the AI doing math or not
just like how Quantum computers are "better" than traditional computers at one thing currently (simulating a quantum computer)
Not to rehash what I have talked about before too much, but AI has been really good at proving most of human "productivity" is a lie, and you could cut 60-70% of all (non physical labour) jobs and the world would probably still run
yep, and I still like your quote from last time a lot
I'll be curious if anyone else here is anywhere close to me on this survey
I live in the world where a lot of people around me are unironically the last answer on this, though probably without a hard stated deadline for that prediction
I think the problem with that is, is anyone who answers that is mentally retarded
I feel it to a degree, the idea that we are making a god
this mission has become religious for a lot of people
I mean, making a god in the literal sense of "deifying an entity" I can agree to
some people really seem to think these LLMs are alive
its interesting how many people fail the Turing test, almost completely unprompted
Akinator has a soul
sorta energy
and the other side of that extreme, is people who see a trendline going up forever, until literally reaching godhood status
I think a lot of it is a misunderstanding. I think entropy wise its something like 32 questions or something is the limit for what you need to narrow down anything in the universe from yes or no questions
but when Akinator does it for a small subset of things internet people would care about, they are amazed
All the math stuff I have seen has been extremely guided experts walking a LLM through the process, aka, it is just a tool for ideas for the most part
I will be impressed with any of it if it can from start to finish prove something
I appreciate ideas being useful, but my personal experience with AI for math is it is wrong way more than it is right
Yeah, if anything, any successes with AI and math feel more like crazy accidents then a big leap in technology
I think axiom encoding has promise as an idea for proving things, since really, you can already prove math using just formal logic and that is essentially what that is doing
but LLMs as they are, are a meme
this is a great lecture that mentions that https://youtu.be/2oD7VxEb17E
Wake up dan, its 2006, you are going to elementary school
I literally met elementary school age you
not in person
True, I guess I would have been 7, possibly 8
Man saw Ike onces (1 time) and his sexual tastes in men was forever changed
Replying to Phijkchu_Pikachu #klombak but LLMs as they are, are a meme
I agree with this. It's like Pets.com where the technology is awesome and will (most likely) do great things, but right now people are just scrambling to find something useful and failing.
Replying to Phijkchu_Pikachu #klombak Man saw Ike onces (1 time) and his sexual tastes in men was forever changed
game literally starts with micaiah
Replying to RIBA #dank.meme game literally starts with micaiah
Wouldn't know, I have yet to start my "play every FE game in order" arc that I am for sure going to do at some point
ix is translated