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lol

Spooky, hear me out. They do not actually believe this, but because they work for Anthropic they really need to upsell it, so whenever you are around they have to act like they think they are causing the end of the world

Actually, I would love to talk to the freezing light guy way more than your coworkers, but they are a close second

Spooky, I would love to talk to your coworkers just to see what the fuck is going on in their head

because this will never hit that, but it will get close enough that people will say "yep, we did it"

I think this huge LLM push has caused the opposite, and delayed actual AGI by probably 10 years

Honestly spooky, I will go the other way with my take from yours

lol

I think the people funding it are doing it for what mtcdood is saying, I think the people working on it are delusional like spooky said

sure, but it will not be an LLM

Okay, I will put it this way, I do not think an LLM, which has the sum total of all human knowledge as it exists right now, and the entire planet is reformed to exist to be in service to (only the data ceneter, factories making more memory etc, power generation) will be AGI

It'll work until the returns are diminished to the point that you have to burn quadrillions to get the same returns

when they stop dumping actual trillions on this, you'll hit the top of the S

I think it can improve, but I think the cost to improve it is getting higher for lower returns, and the only reason you have not seen it slow down is instead of letting it slow down they are just burning trillions to get these diminishing returns

I think when a LLM can update its own training data in reasonable time, without human intervention, and without imploding itself, I will consider us closer to your view

maybe a function without distinction, but I do not support the idea of claiming what we have now is more than it is, a tool that ranges from not to very useful depending on what you use it for

I think you can approximate human thought with enough LLMs running in parralel, but actual AGI is beyond that

I'd call them a network of LLMs

but you are not overcoming the fact that LLMs are limited by their dataset

I think the limit is, a LLM cannot freely think beyond its data set. I think you might be able to get higher results using multiple LLMs in parallel doing different things

I think they are not rigid, there is a lot you can do with prediction based reasoning that LLMs do

or moreso that than what we have now

aka actual AI in the scifi sense

artificial general intelligence

It will incorperate aspects of how LLMs work, but LLMs by themselves won't make it to that

I think we will hit actual AGI in my lifetime, not by 2030, and it will not be a LLM

A lot of the big leaps post transformers being implemented are upping compute power and harvesting more data for training

full stop, its not what they are designed to do

AGI is not happening with LLMs

LLMs are they are now, we are hitting what we are going to get, we are not going to get any more 100x quality jumps like we did, until another breakthrough that is transformer tier, is figured out

Yeah, which I think is true

I think the vast majority of people think LLMs are either somwhat useful at niche topics, or maybe very useful in general, but nothing more than that

I think the majority being 1 tier above me, who is mostly anti AI out of personal gripes and thinking that humanity itself is fucking itself over by how it came about being implemented, makes sense

its the goldrush

The companies building it will not be the companies who inherit it

Spooky's view that AI is almost god might be influenced by the fact that the AI bubble must last long enough to give him retire right now money

I think I was thinking of the double pendulum when I said that, but the ODE system for the 3 body problem is not solvable exactly except in specific special cases

Pretty sure its a trancendental eq involving sine

Also superficially, I hate those books/show because of the amount of times I have seen people say "Physics can't solve the 3 body problem" when the answer to that is that is has, there just is not a closed form solution

it was so nonsensical

Spooky made us see some choice scenes from the show

I meant audio in the sense that, I like music and what not

I would rather just read Polar_ Thoughts on audio books?

but someone is being burdened with that

who, no idea

Someone will inherit my wall of textbooks

I like audio, so I tend to prefer to enage with things that have audio

So most of my 'reading' is just academic texts at this point

not that I have any issue with reading, and the handful of times I do, I enjoy it

I don't read because I don't have the time to on top of the stuff I am already doing