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Turnip Nov 5, 2020 11:14 PM politics

So, the 138k votes were removed before they got added to the official counts.

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 11:13 PM politics

The 138k votes were added in between 4:39 am and 4:59 am. And then they were removed in between 5:04 am and 5:43 am. The jump in this image is unrelated and happens after 6 am:

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 11:12 PM politics

And the typo happened at a different time than the one of the map. DecisionDeskHQ's vote counts aren't official, but because they were unofficial they were updating much faster than everyone else's, so they were the ones people were spamming F5 on.

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 11:11 PM politics

Also, I haven't looked at the numbers for Wisconsin, but I did look at the jump for Michigan.

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 11:10 PM politics

Those are just example numbers, also.

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 11:10 PM politics

So, in certain counties, they would have have X voters registered on November 1. So, if 100,000 were registered to vote on November 1, let's say that 70k people voted that were already registered to vote, and 35k registered to vote and voted on the same day. Making it 105% of registered voters.

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 11:07 PM politics

https://twitter.com/WI_Elections/status/1324035858786328576

The State of Wisconsin had 3,684,726 active registered voters on November 1, 2020. Wisconsin has election day registration, which means that the VR numbers some counties report in their unofficial results are not a true indictor of registration. https://t.co/3TknriWGI2

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 11:07 PM politics

Hold on...

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 11:07 PM politics

No comment.

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 11:06 PM politics

It's an entire team I have locked in my basement.

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 11:06 PM politics

So the 89% turnout number is using outdated voter registration data.

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 11:05 PM politics

There is no deadline to register to vote in Wisconsin. They have same-day voter registration.

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 11:05 PM politics

Also, somewhat related, my team of fact-checkers got back to me.

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 11:03 PM politics

I was lazy and didn't apply for a mail-in ballot, and voted early instead.

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 12:52 AM politics

So, it's pretty clear that the 138k votes were removed from Biden at some point between 5:04 and 6:05, and the images were in reverse order.

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 12:46 AM politics

In that hour, Trump goes up about 39,000 votes, and Biden goes down about 88k votes.

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 12:44 AM politics

This tweet is from an hour later: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323944370098311172

MI Presidential Election Results Trump (R): 51% (2,240,254 votes) Biden (D): 47% (2,042,417 votes) Estimated: 79-93% votes in More results here: https://t.co/P8otcaDgvj

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 12:44 AM politics

^Note the time: 5:04 AM.

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 12:43 AM politics

Here is the corresponding update tweet from the website this was on, DecisionDeskHQ. https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323929039367741440

MI Presidential Election Results Trump (R): 50% (2,200,902 votes) Biden (D): 48% (2,130,695 votes) Estimated: 80-94% votes in More results here: https://t.co/P8otcaDgvj

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 12:43 AM politics

This was the original map that had Biden "gain" 138k votes.

Turnip Nov 5, 2020 12:42 AM politics

So, just to explain what I was trying to say earlier:

El_EDJBXIAEFJWW.png 651.3 KiB · captured_local

Turnip Nov 4, 2020 7:34 PM politics

I hate their website.

Turnip Nov 4, 2020 7:34 PM politics

Here's a New York Times article on it. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/technology/no-joe-biden-wasnt-suddenly-awarded-138000-votes-in-michigan.html

No, Joe Biden Wasn’t Suddenly Awarded 138,000 Votes in Michigan

Screenshots of an election map suggested that 100 percent of a vote update in Michigan went to Mr. Biden. The reason: A typo that was quickly fixed.

www.nytimes.com

Turnip Nov 4, 2020 7:13 PM politics

^Not that the error was from the website specifically, because it wasn't. But that's where the image is from.

Turnip Nov 4, 2020 7:12 PM politics

Decision Desk, the website the error was on, has tweeted out a NYT and Politifact article about it. But I'm not sure you'd accept those as a reliable source.

Turnip Nov 4, 2020 7:10 PM politics

https://www.reddit.com/r/Conservative/comments/jo38f6/in_reference_to_those_133889_votes_that_came_in/

r/Conservative - In reference to those 133,889 votes that came in 1...

5,303 votes and 557 comments so far on Reddit

www.reddit.com

Turnip Nov 4, 2020 7:10 PM politics

Not sure what to link exactly.

Turnip Nov 4, 2020 7:10 PM politics

153,710 (typo) - 15,371 (real amount) = 138,339 extra. Then, from what I've heard, when the extra 138k were removed, someone posted the screenshots in reverse order, making it look like 138k extra went to Biden and 0 went to Trump.

Turnip Nov 4, 2020 6:35 PM politics

I also think Nevada won't count anything until tomorrow.

Turnip Nov 4, 2020 6:35 PM politics

Dolfin, I already sent the 101% turnout claim to my team of fact-checkers. But they're not going to be happy when they find out you ignored their debunking of the "100k votes, 100% of which went to Biden" claim.

Turnip Nov 4, 2020 5:28 PM politics

I saw the correction for this one specifically. Haven't looked at the others. https://twitter.com/MattMackowiak/status/1324041161321992192

This tweet was taken and share honestly. I have now learned the MI update referenced was a typo in one county. I have deleted the original tweet.

Turnip Nov 4, 2020 5:28 PM politics

Are you talking about this Tweet, Bopit?

Turnip Nov 4, 2020 8:49 AM politics

They are true patriots.

Turnip Nov 4, 2020 8:49 AM politics

I have nothing but respect for the libertarians rejecting the two-party system.

Turnip Nov 2, 2020 7:08 PM politics

Smart how, in that video he just seems to be saying standard conservative talking points in a British accent.

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:37 PM politics

We'll know in a few days, either way.

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:37 PM politics

But I'm not sure that's an actual thing.

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:36 PM politics

All of their polls are much more Republican leaning than everyone else's.

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:36 PM politics

I think Trafalgar and Rasmussen try to account for "shy Trump voter syndrome" or whatever.

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:35 PM politics

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:26 PM politics

I think a lot more pollsters control for education now.

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:25 PM politics

I think the main issues with 2016 were that pollsters weren't talking to enough white voters without a college education (skewing the numbers to Dems), and that undecided voters ended up being more likely to vote for Trump.

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:22 PM politics

Very true.

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:20 PM politics

This is what the map looks like if the polling error is 2016's +1, and Biden loses all of the close races.

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:19 PM politics

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:19 PM politics

There's a typo in this article, as Clinton won Maine by 3 points in 2016, not Trump.

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:19 PM politics

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-can-still-win-but-the-polls-would-have-to-be-off-by-way-more-than-in-2016/

Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More...

To borrow from Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, “I’ve seen enough.” No, I don’t know who’s going to win the election. According to our forecast, Presiden…

fivethirtyeight.com

Turnip Oct 31, 2020 10:19 PM politics

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322602104226283520

Here's the 538 version of "what the map would look like if polls are exactly as wrong as in 2016". Note, though that a lot of states are close here. The tipping-point state would be Arizona, which Biden would win by 1.9 points. His wins in FL, GA and PA would all be <1 point....

Turnip Oct 28, 2020 4:34 PM politics

^But I also think that it's unlikely that Trump will win.

Turnip Oct 28, 2020 4:28 PM politics

I don't think he'll do as well as he did in 2016, just because there are fewer undecided voters and people don't hate Biden the same way they hate Hillary Clinton.

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